“ALL AREAS, INCLUDING HIGHLY POPULATED URBAN AREAS, WILL BE AT RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING."

Evacuation orders already issued for some areas.

~2/4

Since my last post, not much has happened weather-wise. Trends on the February 4-6 timeframe have become more and more suppressed (bad trends for snow). It looks to be a rainmaker for the South at this point.

Today is also Groundhog Day! The prediction is an early spring… but models hint at the opposite.

The main story now is round after rounds of heavy rain and snow in the West. An “atmospheric river” is slamming the West Coast currently, with another expected. The name “Pineapple Express” is derived from this moisture and precipitation coming from the virginity of Hawaii.

The first round has already hit the West Coast, the below is on the next round, likely starting Saturday night and lasting into midweek.

Several feet of snow are expected in the mountains of California while up to a foot or more of rain is expected in some areas of California, especially SoCal. Flood watches are up for almost all of the major cities in the Southern part of California, with life-threatening flooding, dangerous rip currents, and strong winds likely. Mudslides and avalanches cannot be ruled out in more mountainous regions.

Widespread 4-8 inches of rain likely. A healthy 60-72 inches of snow in some places - mountain roads will be completely snow-covered.

Winter storm warnings and watches are also up. The brunt of the storm will be ~Sunday morning.

First System - Rockies

Across the Rockies, this weekend and workweek will be wet, and also snowy.

The first round has still yet to hit this area of the US.

Rain and snow will continue into Sunday morning - snow in the higher elevations, and rain in the lower elevations. This could also be the storm for Denver, where snow will fall, uncertain how much. Winter storm watches and warnings are up with the first system. A general 8-12 inches or more will fall in the mountains with less in the lower elevations. The second system looks to hit this region just before midweek lingering into the weekend.

First System - Southeast US

The energy from this first system will combine with some gulf moisture and bring rain with maybe some severe weather this weekend. Not as bad as on the West Coast.

~2/2

Currently, the brunt of the atmospheric river is slamming the West Coast. Life-threatening flooding is likely, including in urban areas. Here is a look at some of the rain totals expected in SoCal:

The Weather Prediction Center has put out a high risk of excessive rainfall and flooding for today and tomorrow.

Across the South, rain and thunderstorms are expected today. A line of thunderstorms and potentially a tornado crossed Southern Florida today. A tornado watch is in effect until 2 PM EST. The main threat is now over.

Pattern Flip into Mid-February

We don’t know the specifics on this yet, but we are confident a significant pattern change is coming in mid-February. Cold should return to the Eastern US. This is not guaranteeing snow, but all 3 of the biggest models have this pattern flip coming right around February 15, with potentially a storm (rain, snow, etc?) coming with it. I expect another bigger one after that, likely with a more southern track, maybe with some wintry weather.

Whatever happens, the pattern is setting up perfectly for a wintry end to winter. The 3-4 week temperature outlook paints this picture as well.

I would say this is one of the best looks we’ve had in many years for cold and snow across the East. A negative NAO, AO, and a positive PNA are all setting up around Valentine's Day - great for colder weather/snow.

By next week, we could be seeing some “fantasy runs” on models (meaning models showing huge snowstorms/storms very far out that are likely not going to happen, but it still shows that the signal is there for some big storms in the future). But still, we cannot pinpoint who will see what yet.

Enjoy another week or two of pleasant weather before the pattern change. Winter is on break for now…

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Snowfall has really filled in for the Mid-Atlantic and Midsouth. A look at the snow cover:

Much of the snowpack has melted across the Lower half of the Lower 48, and this period of warmer than average temperatures will not help in making this snow stay.

Many rain makers will soak much of the East Coast through the end of January, melting snow. The period after that has looks of a very snowy and cold period - Mid-February into March. I haven’t seen such a strong signal of a wintery pattern like this in a long time. With the way winter is already going, this year could end off above average in terms of snowfall for many in the South and Eastern third of the US.

You may already know, but this year we are in a mod-strong El Nino - better for snow across the East Coast. You can read more about this in this article.

What is El Nino?

As we go into February, I think early-mid February is when this wintry period could start, lasting possibly into March. This is when we could see the big snowstorm across the Central, Southern, and Eastern US.

I will be continuing to track any future winter storms - so stay tuned. Let’s get back to the present.

Into February

The model run above goes until Feb. 1. Refer to the chart on the right for precipitation types. Things could still change as this is one model run.

A train of moisture is being flung into the Eastern as well as Western US leading to many rainy days throughout the rest of this week. The Midwest and Central US should remain dry and pleasant. More on and off rain across the West Coast, and especially the Pacific Northwest.

The main thing to watch will be a possible “minor” snowstorm across parts of the interior Northeast as we go into the work week next week. Travel could be an issue, but right now this does not look like anything too big for major cities, mainly a rain maker.

Another clipper system could move down into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic mid-week, bringing light precipitation of some form.

A quieter period is possible for a few days in the transition into February. Watching another storm system Feb 3-6. After that is where the signal for a colder period begins in about 2 weeks.

Temperature outlook for the next 15 days looks pleasant, I do not see a very cold arctic blast nor a very big warm up.

Precipitation

A look at possible rain amounts through the end of January.

Widespread inch to two inch rain totals possible across much of the Eastern US.

I hope to have an update for you before Feb 5. Stay tuned and subscribe!

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After the two “twin” systems that mainly brought heavy rains to the East and snow to the Central US, many cities along the East Coast have their shot at the first inch of snow in 2 years.

This period of about a week of arctic air plunging into the US has brought the first real potential for snow lower into the US.

Today

The main weather story will be the winter storm early this week. Today though, it should remain relatively quiet for most of the US other than very cold and blustery conditions across most of the Lower 48. Check out these temperatures for the next 2 days as the arctic air moves in:

Yes, these are ACTUAL temps. Negative teens across much of the Midwest. Wind chills will be even COLDER than these temperatures - how much colder depends on how windy it is. You can see the arctic air progressing eastward. A quick-moving arctic boundary will move across the East today, bringing snow squalls and snow showers (quick-moving band of heavy snow that could bring blinding conditions and dangerous travel conditions).

A quick inch is possible in some areas.

Some showers are possible in Florida today and scattered precip across the West Coast. Most should remain dry.

Winter Storm for Mid-South and East Coast

This storm likely will be the one to break the streak of almost 2 years without in inch of snow in many Northeast cities. However, it will still be a light snow event for much of the I-95, a widespread swath of 1-3 inches with more in some places.

Snow could already be breaking out in the Texas/OK/Arkansas region around noon. Freezing drizzle could already be starting across Eastern Texas, Northern Louisiana, Southern Arkansas, and Northern Mississippi.

Around dinnertime, widespread freezing rain/drizzle can be expected in the same regions, working further east.

Snow has already begun in Memphis, approaching Nashville. Northern Mississippi and far Northern Alabama could be getting in on some too. The gradient between snow and no snow will be sharp.

At around midnight, working into Monday morning, snow has already overspread into Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Virginia. Freezing rain/sleet continues in spots that have already seen it. Energy tries to extend into VA, possibly bringing some light snow across some regions.

As most of us wake up, low pressure is trying to develop of the coast. Some snow could extend into the Delmarva/DMV region. Freezing drizzle/rain CONTINUES. Dallas/Fort Worth could be seeing some, as well as Baton Rouge. By now, snow has likely moved out of Arkansas and Western Tennessee.

Around noon Monday, its about the same as 6 hours ago. Main event for the Northeast will be Monday night into Tuesday.

At around dinnertime Monday, freezing rain could be moving into Alabama as well. Snow continues for places that were seeing it 6 hours ago.

Midnight Monday is when snow starts moving into the Mid-Atlantic region.

Cold air will not be an issue with this storm, so for more snow to stick, you need more snow to fall (of course). No mixing issues are expected along the I-95 corridor.

By Tuesday morning this storm should almost be out of the DMV region, still continuing into the Northeast. Potent cold air on the back end of this storm.

Almost SINGLE digits in Northern Alabama.

Some more light snow may linger in the Northeast by noon Tuesday. Should be out of here by Wednesday morning.

Give or take a few hours on this forecast, snow may come earlier or later.

Wintery Week

This week arctic air will be in place across much of the US. Expect continued precipitation over the Northwestern US. I am then watching another system after this one - this one could be a big one. I hope to talk more on this later this week. This system looks similar to this one about to materialize later today, but has the potential to be even more substantial. The key timing is Thursday into the weekend.

Even further after that, it should warm up again across the Lower 48 likely leading to a not-so-wintery end to the month. Watching February for more snow!

Stay tuned and bundle up!

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I very much like this paragraph written by Firsthand Weather. Things are going to get busy as we enter the heart of El Nino and winter.

But we will miss before we hit.

Expect snow to linger across New England and the Northeast before things clear out by tomorrow morning.

Scattered rain and snow will be present across the West Coast as another system will combine with Gulf of Mexico moisture bringing yet another high-impact storm, this time targeting the Central US.

Big East Coast System Heading into the Week

Rain will begin in OK and TX where rain will spread eastward across the state. Snow will begin to move into the Great Plains as this system starts to come together tomorrow morning.

By midday tomorrow, snow could be moving into the Kansas City (possibly rain/snow mix), Des Moines, and Minneapolis metropolitan areas as blizzard conditions on the back end of this storm will be affecting the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle as well as far northeastern NM, southeastern CO, and much of western KS.

You can see the classic comma head shape already forming.

This won’t just be a rainmaker, it will also be a windy one. A huge swath of wind advisories are up for much of the TX/OK and the South. Expect more to be issued up and down the East Coast and some high wind warnings as well in parts of the Northeast and New England. Widespread gusts up to 60mph (more in some areas) can be expected.

The storm will continue to progress eastward bringing high winds and a soaker for the South, snow to the north.

Eventually, this storm will cut northeastward into the Great Lakes region overnight Monday and a severe threat is possible with the very long line of rain and storms moving across the Midsouth.

Snow keeps progressing north - some ice even showing up as this system interacts with colder air in the Northeast Tuesday morning. It may start as a brief period of sleet/snow in the mountains of VA and WV and upper Ohio as this storm keeps moving northeast. The northwestern part of the country will also see periods of rain and snow.

Snow will linger on the backside of this storm bringing some snow showers in the afternoon into overnight across the Ohio Valley.

Expect an initial period of snow in Northern PA then transitioning into rain. Soaker and high winds for much of the East Coast as a line of heavy rains passes through. Snow continues to push into New England (NY, Vermont, New Hampshire, Mass, and Maine).

The system will begin to move out Wednesday morning with lake effect and leftover snow showers across the Ohio Valley.

A severe weather threat is also in place - cannot rule out the threat of some tornadoes. An enhanced (moderately widespread severe storms) risk of severe weather is present for Monday and Tuesday as the line of storms moves through late Monday night into Tuesday.

The threat area shifts east the next day targeting the Florida Panhandle.

Winds and some tornadoes will be the main threat as the line of storms moves through this area Tuesday afternoon.

Snowfall Totals and Rain Totals

Snow totals here are slightly overdone, but you can see the bullseye of this storm:

Moderate risks of excessive rainfall have been put out for tomorrow and Tuesday as well for a portion of the Deep South (New Orleans area and just north and west of the NYC/Philly metro area).

A widespread swath of 1-3 inches of rain is looking likely up and down the whole East Coast with localized heavier amounts.

Storm One After Another - Arctic Blast to Move In

Now that was just the first storm. Cold air should remain in place for much of the Northern parts of the US. As for snow in the South, things must line up perfectly - we will miss before we hit. Statistically late Jan and into Feb are the snowiest times for the Southern part of the country during an El Nino.

Things are setting up for that as potent arctic air will move into the US next week.

Official 8-14 day temperature outlook shows a huge blast of cold air moving into the Central US which will likely move eastward further out into the future. Once the cold air plunges down, it will have nowhere to go but east.

This will set up a pattern for more storms, one of which could be the snowmaker for the South. Right now we are still a bit too far out to pinpoint where these storms will affect, but here is a cool model run of the next 384 hours - take all of this with a grain of salt.

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Here is a map showing the total snowfall so far this season.

Considering it’s basically early January, most places have gotten what they would usually expect by now - right around the 70-year average. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic, southern New England, and the Ohio Valley have been a bit lacking in terms of snowfall so far this season, influenced by the mild December. Going forward more cold air should spill into the Lower 48 and an active storm track is more likely. More consistent cold air should remain in the upper half of the US with cold spilling into the south more often as well.

First Storm Threat

Through New Year and into midweek, it should remain dry and nice for most.

Our first chance at some wintry weather coming up will be right around mid-late week. This one looks like it has the least potential - cold air and moisture just don’t combine.

Looks to be a soaker for the south - some light to moderate snow can still be expected in the Ohio Valley and the Northeast late Wednesday into Thursday afternoon - nothing too much. Low-pressure (marked by L) starts to get stronger and the disturbance starts to negatively tilt (making the storm stronger) a bit too late, leading to a fish storm which will bring some heavy rains and snow to those in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Not much out of the normal on the West Coast, just rain for many and snow in the higher elevations.

Light clipper system brings snow showers across some of Canada.

You can see at the very last frame of the run another piece of moisture trying to combine with cold - the one that could become a major winter storm.

Update: I wrote everything above yesterday - now it looks like something could actually come out of this first system.

Enough cold air could support a rain changing to moderate to heavy snow late Wednesday into Thursday for parts of the south.

The NAM model usually is pretty bullish with winter weather events, but this is still a big possibility and we need to watch it.

2nd System - Looking Like a Major Winter Storm

This second system will likely be a big one. After the first storm, rain and snow will already be present on the West Coast and Rocky Mountains, targeted at the higher elevations.

A nice swath of some snow - and just like usual, more snow in the higher elevations with some working into the valleys.

After this, the snow and cold will combine with moisture from the gulf - you can see some of that progression here:

A period of some snow is possible in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle as well as Southeast Colorado and most of Kansas.

This storm could really be a boom or bust. The low pressure will strengthen and cut through the Ohio Valley as it transfers its energy to another low off the coast leading to possibly a Nor’easter and a Miller B type storm.

You can see the energy transfer in this animation. This is not a forecast, just one deterministic run

Saturday is when things start ramping up. After a soaker for the south, this storm will start cutting north. You can see a snow-ice mix already in the higher elevations of NC, WV, and KY early Saturday. Eventually, snow will move into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Where the low-pressure tracks and how much cold air in place will determine whether those near the rain snow line see snow or not. A warm bubble will infiltrate into Kentucky and West Virginia changing the snow to rain again.

This will eventually move into New England and the Northeast bringing snow and rain but it’s still a bit too far out to pinpoint exact snowfall totals - I hope to have a blog post closer to the event.

Some severe weather could also be possible in the Southeast with the commahead-shaped storm.

And the last few frames you can already see ANOTHER system forming - just goes to show this busy period of weather we are going into.

Stay tuned for more - happy 2024!

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Today, rain will continue to spread eastward with snow far north. You can read more about the threat happening right now by clicking the link:

Thanksgiving Trouble

Going Forward

A storm will roll through the central and eastern US once again around this weekend. Winter Storm Warnings have already been issued for mountainous regions and even lower elevations in Wyoming, Montana, and South Dakota. Some heavy snow will fall with accumulations up to half a foot and more in higher elevations. This “clipper” will then move across the Plains and Central US bringing rain and snow. Snow will move down into Kansas and even the Texas Panhandle on the 26th while rain will spread across the South.

Light snow will linger into the Ohio Valley later on the 26th while rain continues in the south.

The storm will eventually interact with some moisture from the Atlantic, but likely won’t be more than a rainmaker with some light to moderate snow up north.

After this, cold will spread into the whole Lower 48 with some of the coldest air so far.

This pattern will likely persist for a bit with some systems moving across the south mainly being rainmakers with light snow across the Great Lakes and Rockies periodically. Cold air will linger across the US. There is a slight chance for a storm at the beginning of December but it likely won’t remain a threat.

As we work into December and atmospheric river (just a river of precipitation could move into the West Coast which will bring heavy rains and snows and potential storms that could cross the country, but that’s a bit further than 10 days out. More info as we get closer.

Tropical System in Late November?

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two disturbances now, and one has a decent chance of becoming named.

The disturbance in the open waters of the Atlantic has a 60% percent chance of forming in the next week, but should remain a fish storm - remaining over open waters.

The disturbance in the Carribean has been deemed and invest, but also likely will not form due to dry air.

Enjoy a bit of nicer weather with small systems periodically before another bigger storm rolls through.

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“Kindness is like snow—it beautifies everything it covers.” – Kahlil Gibran

Heading forward, expect unsettled weather for a couple of weeks as we transition into winter. The next storm is already brewing, and its a pretty big one. Thanksgiving travel will be very disrupted. As we go into tomorrow, rain will begin across the Midwest and unsettled weather will continue across the West Coast, settling as we work into midweek.

Meanwhile, an enhanced severe weather threat is in store for the deep south, with a focus on Louisiana and Mississippi. The Storm Prediction Center has issued that enhanced risk, with a hatched 10% risk of tornadoes. This basically means a level 3/5, and scattered to numerous severe storms can be expected. Refer to this graph:

The 10% hatched risk means there is a 10% percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. You can add about 2-5% to that chance when there is a hatched risk.

Much of Northern Louisiana and Southern Mississippi are included in that risk, with the slight risk (SLGT, see key) extending from Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas, Central Mississippi, and a sliver of Western Alabama.

Storms could start popping off around noon, in Northwest Louisiana some of which could be severe.

However, the bulk of it should arrive during the afternoon and into the evening.

More widespread storms can be expected around dinner time, some of which may produce tornadoes, some even strong.

The storms ahead of the bulk of storms in Southern Mississippi will also need to be watched.

The storms will eventually turn into a line of storms which may produce damaging winds but the bulk of the threat should be over.

As we go into the 21st, the severe threat should die down, but we still have a marginal risk of severe weather and another threat, a big pre-thanksgiving winter storm.

As we wake up, icing will begin in the mountains likely not accumulating much and being melted by the rain, but will still cause disruptions.

Icing will work its way northward into Central Pennsylvania.

It will keep moving north-east, eventually turning into snow in the late evening, some heavy, in New England, specifically Vermont, Upstate NY, and New Hampshire, and Maine.

Also, a line of mostly just rain will roll through the eastern seaboard in the very late evening and into the next day as well, likely just your regular showers.

Snow will keep working its way into Maine, and settle throughout the day.

Expect a swath of about an inch of snow with more in the higher elevations. This map includes sleet and you should subtract some off the totals further south.

Thanksgiving day looks relatively quiet other than light rain showers across Florida and snow in the Midwest moving down with the cold air.

The next storm will work in after Thanksgiving, but it is a bit far out. We will look at it in the next post.

We also have another tropical disturbance to watch, but dry air should likely limit its development.

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With uncertainty, about a week out is when we could see our next disturbance directly affecting the east coast. Trends over past 5 model runs show something brewing over the east coast, some even showing a tropical system riding up the east coast.

The National Hurricane Center has marked that disturbance in the Carribean with a 30% chance of development.

This will gradually move north and possibly interact with energy and produce a big rain/snow/wind storm up the east coast, but it still remains uncertain.

Followed by that will be colder air in the east and a ridge in the west.

Today showers are evident in the south eastern US while everywhere else should stay mostly dry and chilly. The cold will spread to the east by tomorrow and Sunday as a cold front passes through. See time and forecast hour in top corner.

Near to below-freezing temperatures can be expected for the Northern Plains, Rocky mountains, Northeast, and Ohio Valley while the south-central and southeastern US should stay above freezing. Temperatures should be pleasant over the next few days for the Sierra Nevada and Southwestern US.

A few snow showers can be expected over the Western Great Lakes Sunday.

Things are starting to ramp up as moisture from the gulf will collide with cold from the north which will produce a cross-country system sometime with severe weather, snow, ice, and rain. So buckle up for this secondary tornado season as we transition to winter in the lower 48.

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It is not looking too impressive right now, but is expected to restrengthen back into a category 4 then weaken once more on approach to landfall.

Remember, landfall is still more than five days out, and Lee is expected to grow in size (especially its windfield), so impacts will be felt outside the cone.

Hurricane Lee will remain far enough from the Bahamas, Virgin Islands… etc, but could make a close approach with Bermuda at hurricane strength. Unless the track is to shift east, only tropical storm force winds are likely.

The track is still uncertain for now as Lee is expected to slow down during the work week and then pick up pace toward land late-week and make landfall around the 16th or 17th.

However overnight and today models have trended west, concerningly. Most spaghetti tracks have landfall right between Maine and Nova Scotia, and you can see a slight western wobble, then back to the east. However a couple models have it plowing into the Northeast due to another trough coming through and sucking the storm in. We will just have to keep monitoring this, you can to at: National Hurricane Center (noaa.gov).

If you live in these places, prepare for a category 1 hurricane max.

The wind speed probabilities don’t go further than five days, but if the tracks shifts further west tropical storm force winds could be possible as far west as NYC.

Stay tuned for more on Lee.

We also have Margot churning in the Atlantic, but is expected to remain out to sea and not effect land.

More tropical waves will come after these storms, but we will talk about them later.

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It is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane near landfall, with winds of 125MPH. However, this could be higher. It still has about 18-24 hours before landfall, and is already a 90MPH Category 1 hurricane churning in the gulf.

Models have it flirting with Category 4 and 5, but the biggest and most dangerous threat will be the CATASTROPHIC and life threatening storm surge, water being pushed onto the coast.

Considering the Big Bend area of Florida is very low, 10-15 ft of storm surge is expected, and the water could extend miles into Florida. (yes, 15 feet of water)

Satellite imagery of this storm shows Idalia trying to form an eye:

Hurricane hunters have not investigated it yet this afternoon, but likely will soon, and likely find it stronger.

Key West NWS radar earlier showed a visible eye - no rain but still clouds.

Idalia is slowly strengthening and is expected to under rapid intensification before landfall. Current pressure 974mb.

Hurricane warnings, ts warnings and watches are all up, as Idalia may pose an inland threat as well, possibly still a hurricane as it makes its way up into Georgia, then scraping the coast line of SC and NC, and possibly even taking a loopdy loop around back to Florida, or just going out to sea.

(models showing potential tracks of the CENTER of the storm)

The eastern side of this storm is strongest as shown on the wind field map from NHC: (yellow is sticking out more from the dot)

A widespread 5-10 inches of rain are expected across a wide swath, and more possible localized. Flash flooding is also a threat.

(rainfall totals for the next 3 days)

Hurricane Franklin flirted with Category 5 status yesterday. It had winds up to 150MPH and was extremely impressive, almost symmetrical in shape. It is currently under going and eyewall replacement cycle, which are common in strong hurricanes, typically causing the wind field to spread out over a larger area. It is expected to weaken further, maybe affecting Bermuda, then becoming a “fish” storm.

Tropical Depression Eleven also formed, likely to become named but will not pose any threats.

Thanks for reading… be prepared if you live here!

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Hurricane winds stayed mostly offshore, and TS winds were widespread. Many flash flood warnings were issued, including one for the LA metro.

The storm is now generally over, but more rain will work its way up into the Pacific Northwest.

Three Storms

Over the past few days, things have become very active. 3 storms were named, with the names Emily, Franklin, and Gert, forming in alphabetical order.

EMILY

Emily is a weak tropical storm, with winds at near the minimum criteria, 40MPH. It will remain far from land and will dissipate soon. By 2 AM AST Tuesday, it should be a depression.

FRANKLIN

This storm has the potential to affect the Carribean Islands, and indirectly affect the US. It currently looks like it is strengthening on satellite.

It currently has maximum sustained winds of 50MPH, and will take a sharp turn north toward the Dominican Republic and Haiti, potentially bringing devasting flash flooding.

Tropical storm warnings and watches are already up for the Bahamas, Dominican Republic, and Haiti. It should approach overnight Wednesday, and the Bahamas midday Wednesday. After that, it may strengthen into a hurricane, however, models are uncertain where it will go after that.

Don’t forget:

This is the most concerning named storm right now. Stay tuned.

GERT

Gert was originally TD6, and not expected to strengthen into a tropical storm, but now it has. It will dissipate soon, and will not be strong when it nears land.

Five Disturbances

We already covered three, and the other two both have high chanches of forming within the next week.

The two red areas both are likely to form, the one on the right to stay out in open waters, and one a potential threat to the US gulf.

From the NHC

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization 
in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the 
central Gulf of Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear conducive 
for development of this system, and a tropical depression or 
tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the western Gulf 
of Mexico coastline on Tuesday. Interests in southern Texas and 
northern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system as 
tropical storm watches or warnings are likely to be issued later 
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

A storm is likely to form, and may produce impacts to the gulf, mainly Texas and Mexico. Stay alert and have a hurricane plan ready.

More later, as things are getting active.

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Hurricane Hilary, which was a major hurricane, is now affecting the SE US, which is very rare. We have not even seen a Florida hurricane threat, and now a storm is already landfalling in California?!

Anyway, a short recap of this storm:

It originated from the southern coast of Mexico, and it quickly underwent rapid intensification, reaching cat 4 status with 145MPH winds. It weakened the following day, and some more the next day into a tropical storm, and made landfall in Baja California. “Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding”, states the NHC. Potentially more than a year’s worth of rain could fall in some areas.

It should make its way into California soon.

As of 2PM PDT. 5PM EDT. More tomorrow - on disturbances and Hilary.

Stay tuned.

The disturbance has been upgraded to a medium chance of development today, the heat is here, approaching triple digits in the NE. Mainly light dust across the majority of the eastern US. Stay tuned for a post in a few days.

Previously:

Hello! Before we get started, I have decided to start covering the severe weather, tropics, and everything in general across the US.

So,

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Atlantic Ramping Up

Yesterday, 3 disturbances were marked in the Atlantic, not including Don, which dissipated yesterday and is no longer a threat.

Currently, only one disturbance is marked, the others have no likely chance of becoming tropical.

Remember, if any disturbance makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, it will likely strengthen rapidly. Water temperatures in the Gulf are much hotter than usual, as is the whole Atlantic. The main thing limiting development is dust and wind sheer, but there are possibilities that the content of these lessons soon be.

Read more about this disturbance:

1. Eastern Atlantic:
A tropical wave is located just to the southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Some development of this system is possible later this 
week and into the weekend while it moves westward to 
west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

The Pacific also has a disturbance off the coast of Mexico, no big threat for now.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southern Mexico 
over the weekend to early next week.  Some gradual development of 
this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally 
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and 
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

HEAT WAVE BEGINS

The South has already been through sweltering heat this summer, and now the heat is moving to the east. Many major cities may near record temperatures and approach triple digits.

From NWS Philly/Mount Holly,

heat indexes could reach up to 110 in some areas. Humidity will make it feel even hotter, but should settle into late week.

Heat Advisories have been issued, spanning from NOVA up to the Boston area.

Even an excessive heat watch was issued for NE NJ.

DC region

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values around 105 degrees expected.

* WHERE...The Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas, central
  and northeast Maryland, southern Maryland, and portions of
  northern Virginia into the Virginia Piedmont.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday.

Philly region

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Heat Advisory, heat index values up to 103
  degrees expected. For the Excessive Heat Watch, dangerously hot
  conditions with heat index values up to 106 degrees possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, central, northern and
  southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...For the Heat Advisory, from 11 AM Thursday to 6 AM EDT
  Friday. For the Excessive Heat Watch, from Friday morning
  through Friday evening.

NYC region

...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 104 expected.

* WHERE...New York City.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Thursday to 9 PM EDT Friday.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to
  106 possible.

* WHERE...Eastern Passaic, Hudson, Bergen, Essex, and Union
  counties in northeast New Jersey.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday evening.

Boston region

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM
EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values 95 to 104 degrees both Thursday and
  Friday afternoons.

* WHERE...Most of Southern New England except for the east
  slopes of the Berkshires and the immediate south coast.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday. The worst of
  the conditions will be from noon to 6 pm on both Thursday and
  Friday afternoons.

The Central US will also be affected, a large chunk is also in a heat advisory.

Take precautions.

ENHANCED RISK TODAY

SPC, Storm Prediction Center, issues daily convective outlooks for chance of thunderstorms, from 1-5. Marginal, Slight, Enhanced, Moderate, and High.

Today,

An enhanced risk is issued for Northern Indiana, Ohio, and Southern Michigan.

A 5% tornado risk, 30% wind, and 15% hail threat within 25 miles of a point, meaning there is a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given location.

Summary:

 ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF INDIANA/OHIO...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   ENHANCED RISK...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today in parts of
   the southern Great Lakes, along with occasional large hail.  Severe
   gusts also are possible over parts of the central High Plains this
   afternoon.

   ...Synopsis... dont focus on this part
   The mid/upper-level pattern will remain broadly characterized by a
   strong anticyclone centered over NM, and a mean trough over the
   eastern CONUS.  However, deamplification of the eastern trough, and
   the ridging north of the anticyclone, is making the wave train and
   flow field more zonal across the northern tier of states.  The
   strongest embedded shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel
   imagery over portions of MN/IA -- is expected to move
   east-southeastward to Lake MI and western Lower MI around 00Z, then
   from southeastern ON to near a BUF-PIT-PKB line by 12Z tomorrow. 
   Much weaker perturbations over parts of UT, WY and CO will round the
   broader-scale ridge slowly and cross parts of the central Rockies
   and adjoining High Plains through the period.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, so be prepared.

DUST RETURNS

Todays air quality forecast has Moderate air quality for many across the eastern two-thirds of the country, with pockets of orange, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups near bigger cities. Wear a mask if needed.

Thanks for reading! It is really appreciated.

It is now dissipated, moving away from the islands and into open waters, but some gusty winds may continue today.

New disturbances have also been marked in the Pacific and Atlantic, while Don has restrengthened into a tropical storm but is still over open waters, with no threats currently.

Satellite imagery shows a pretty small storm.

It will take a curve-like path, fortunately not making it close to land. Do stay tuned for updates.

Disturbances

In the Eastern Pacific, a disturbance has been marked with a 60% chance of formation, again likely remaining in open waters.

More from the NHC:

1. Central East Pacific (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula have changed little in organization 
overnight.  Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for 
further development of this system during the next day or so, and a 
short-lived tropical depression could form while it moves 
west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the central portion of the 
eastern Pacific basin.  By Saturday, further development is not 
expected as the system moves over cooler waters and encounters 
stronger upper-level winds.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

In the Atlantic, an African easterly wave has come off Africa and moved into the MDR, (main development region) and may progress into the Caribbean soon.

However, some Saharan dust is still blowing through the Atlantic, likely limiting development.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo 
Verde Islands is currently interacting with the Intertropical 
Convergence Zone. The combination of these features is producing an 
elongated area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern 
and central tropical Atlantic. While dry air to the north may 
prevent significant organization during the next couple of days, 
environmental conditions could become more conducive for some 
development this weekend as the system moves westward across 
the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Be sure to share this post and come back for updates!

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A hurricane has formed from last week’s disturbances, one dissipated, and one is now Hurricane Calvin. Currently, at about 100 MPH, it is expected to remain over open Pacific waters but may approach the Hawaiian Islands… maybe by mid-week as a weak tropical storm. Keep an eye out.

Some more about this from the NHC:

Hurricane Calvin is centered near 15.0N 130.4W at 15/2100 UTC
moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of
center. Seas in excess of 12 ft seas extend within 180 nm N 
semicircle and 120 nm S semicircle with maximum seas estimated 
to reach 34 ft ft. Calvin is moving westward over open waters, 
and this general motion at a similar or slightly faster forward 
speed is expected during the next few days. Calvin is forecast to
cross 140W on Sun night into Mon morning. Weakening is forecast 
through early next week. Swells generated by Calvin are expected 
to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands early next week. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of 
Calvin.

Don

Don is currently a subtropical storm recently shown as a disturbance but became organized around yesterday-ish. (14th) Again in open waters, taking a loop-like path which may allow it to strengthen more, after weakening some today.

Notice how the “cone of uncertainty” becomes much bigger at the end, where models disagree.

However, it will still remain in open waters. Keep an eye on this one too (if you can’t, I will) and stay tuned for more.

Subtropical Storm Don is centered near 37.3N 48.6W at 15/2100
UTC or 1030 nm W of the Azores moving N at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Only a weak band of moderate
convection is noted on the southeastern side of the circulation,
mostly removed from the center. Tropical storm-force winds 
extend within 120 nm NE and 80 nm SE quadrants of center. Seas 
in excess of 12 ft seas extend within 210 nm NE, 180 nm SE, and 
180 nm NW quadrants of the center of Don. On the forecast track,
Don should turn toward the east on Sunday, southeast on Monday 
and toward the south by Tuesday. Little change in strength is 
forecast for the next several days, and Don could become a 
remnant low pressure area in a few days.

Also, don’t be fooled by this maybe weak or slow start to the hurricane season. Waters in the Atlantic are extremely warmer than usual, especially in the Gulf of Mexico. So, any storm that makes it in there will likely explode (in strength) - don’t let your guard down, unless wind shear breaks it apart.

Thanks for reading, and you can share the news by clicking the button below, it would really help!

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The disturbances will gradually move WNW, a couple hundred miles off the coast of Mexico.

One disturbance has a good chance of formation (red), and one is low, which may gradually develop.

The “higher chance” system will likely be deemed an invest soon as convection is gradually increasing:

From the NHC:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 5 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of 
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development of this system and a tropical depression will likely 
form by this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward, 
off the coast of mainland Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form a few hundred miles south 
of the southern coast of Mexico early next week.  Some gradual 
development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves 
generally westward to west-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Stay tuned for more.

Beatriz has already become post-tropical just off the coast of Mexico after bringing heavy rainfall, coastal flooding and mudslides to Mexico.

NHC’s map of wind swaths shows tropical storm and even hurricane force winds that struck Mexico earlier today and yesterday. It likely just missed landfall near Manzanillo in Mexico.

Current satellite imagery shows convection tapering off as it should become non-tropical soon.

As for Adrian, it is still currently a tropical storm with sustained 1-minute winds of around 60 mph and a pressure of 998mb. It is far out to sea, however did approach an island earlier today.

It was the first hurricane of the season, but things seem to be calming down - for both the Atlantic and Pacific.

Stay tuned if another disturbance comes up.

This storm was originally forecasted to strengthen into a hurricane yesterday, but the National Hurricane Center and many models have backed off, likely keeping it a tropical storm

. However, if strengthening continues through tomorrow, this may become the first hurricane of the season, this early on, unusually.

As of now, Bret is far from land (1,130 miles) and poses no threat to the mainland US, however by late week this storm is likely to be near the Windward and Leeward islands.

Since last week, models have trended way south, putting the storm into the Caribbean Sea, which is unusual for this time of year.

Now, the NHC also agrees, with the current cone of uncertainty.

Tropical Storm watches may be issued soon for the Leeward and Windward islands.

However, this storm is expected to start weakening just as it approaches, and likely battling against wind shear as it makes it farther into the Caribbean Sea, early next week.

Bret is still expected to bring many risks, as written in the key messages from the NHC and NOAA.

Stay tuned and closely monitor this storm. Know your plan in advance if a hurricane were to hit you this year.

UPDATE: Bret has dissipated (about a week ago) producing tropical storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and some coastal flooding. The threat is over. Cindy also formed but was no big threat to land. No tropical formation expected in the next week.

Formation chance is low for both (20%), but conditions may become more favorable, likely being deemed a invest soon. However, currently this poses to threat to the mainland US or Mexico.

From the NHC:

1. Central East Pacific:
An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south 
of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Some development of this 
system is possible over the next few days while it moves generally 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  By early next week, conditions 
are expected to become unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Eastern East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by this weekend several 
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.  Conditions 
appear favorable for some development of this system thereafter 
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

To read more about why El Nino is expected to affect the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons in a big way, click here.

Stay tuned for more.

Heavy rain and gusty are possible throughout the weekend in Florida.

Current satellite imagery:

The circulation is not very well defined, and will weaken into a depression either today or tomorrow.

No further updates.